Mercy Corps Report: From Hormuz to the Frontlines of Hunger - The Middle East War's Economic Reach into Six Fragile Contexts

Two months on from the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global energy flows, shocks have rippled through economies worldwide. The impact on major fuel importers and exporters has been well documented. Less visible is the exposure of countries already grappling with economic and humanitarian crises and how these shocks compound existing vulnerability.

Economic shocks have quickly reached these countries through distinct transmission channels – fertilizer, retail and consumer fuel, commercial shipping and insurance, currency and purchasing power, and remittances – with measurable consequences for the cost of food, fuel and essential goods and services for millions of people already in need. The threat of compounding impact on remittance-receiving households from millions of foreign workers in the Gulf if the conflict persists, though not yet materialized, remains the largest forward-looking risk.

Building on a previous Mercy Corps flash report, The Long Reach of War, this study traces these economic transmission channels and their impacts on six countries: Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Myanmar and Lebanon. Each of these countries was contending with humanitarian crises prior to the outbreak of war in the Middle East and many have already exhausted their ability to absorb additional shocks. For those with more fiscal buffers to do so, prolonged disruption will further erode their long-term economic resilience, reversing hard-won development gains.

Access the report here: 

https://www.mercycorps.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/from-hormuz-to-the-frontline-of-hunger.pdf